Meaning he now supports Gen.Buhari.
Read article below.
Fellow Nigerians, let me reiterate here that I’m a
latter day convert to Buharism. Truth is it took
me years to see the light. I had resisted the
conversion due to an overdose of poison from
anti-Buhari elements that litter our socio-political
landscape. Those who wish to continue the
current charade and wish Nigeria would remain in
perpetual servitude would do anything and
everything possible to make a Buhari Presidency
impossible and unrealisable. However lies can run
faster than truth but truth will always catch up
especially when lies become predictable.
I have received many reactions, and read many
comments, on my mathematical calculations
about the 2015 elections, earlier published. I have
also followed the interventions of my two great
Brothers, Simon Kolawole and Segun Adeniyi. We
are all committed to seeing a better and greater
Nigeria. I don’t think anyone prays for the
personal downfall of President Goodluck Jonathan
who has obviously faced too many challenges in
the last four years. What I see personally is the
sad reality that the present problems have
overwhelmed him beyond redemption, and asking
him to continue is to extend these tragic times for
another four years. When Dr Jonathan became
President, he inherited a burden heavier than an
elephant. If PDP had managed Nigerian affairs a
tiny bit, all the hullabaloo about APC would have
been unnecessary. But PDP could not keep its
own house in order not to talk of governing well.
The implosion of PDP had long been foretold. It
is clear that no political party could ever sustain
its level of recklessness and rascality forever. Any
serious observer and chronicler of events would
have seen and known that a day would come
when the rampaging monkey would go to the
market and fail to return. Such was the case of
PDP which behaved like Nigerians were too docile
to react or move against it. Such is the kind of
complacency and rudeness that has set Burkina
Faso on fire today.
The first sign of trouble came from within during
the Nigerian Governors’ Forum election in which
Rotimi Amaechi roundly defeated Jonah David
Jang the favoured candidate of Mr President. But
rather than see the handwriting on the wall that
something terrible was about to hit its household,
the PDP gladiators chose to dig deeper and
engage in unholy wars with whosoever challenged
its purported invincibility. Before our very eyes,
the Nigerian Governors Forum was dichotomised
and decimated in a vindictive manner. Seven PDP
Governors rebelled and started a nationwide
consultation with different socio-political groups.
Eventually, five of them chose to challenge fate
and decamped to the new amalgamation of
political parties known as APC but two later
chickened out for obvious and personal reasons.
The birth of APC was bound to change the
political configuration and alter the electoral
calculations ahead of the 2015 elections. But
again the PDP underrated the influence of the
confluence of political parties brought about by
the emergence and existence of APC. The
arrogant assumption by PDP that its power and
glory cannot be challenged by APC is what has
become its seeming albatross and possible
waterloo.
However, APC still has a long and dangerous
bridge to cross. My mathematical calculation did
not write off the victory of President Jonathan
who controls an awesome arsenal which he
seems ready to deploy against his enemies. I only
opined that APC has a stronger and better chance
than the opposition has ever had if it manages its
internal contradictions very well. Let’s now
examine the defection of the Speaker House of
Representatives, Waziri Aminu Tambuwal from
PDP to APC. I will address this controversial
move from its genesis to revelation before moving
on with my forecast.
There was nothing surprising about Tambuwal’s
dramatic elopement, if it could be called that.
Tambuwal from Day One had been living with a
lover while pretending to be in a marriage
elsewhere. What Tambuwal did this week was to
boldly come out by openly revealing the love of
his life and damning all consequences. It was
sweet revenge against PDP, and payback time for
APC, after he’d been rejected by the original lover
when it mattered most. Tambuwal would not
have been made Speaker but for the benevolence
of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who encouraged
members of ACN in the National Assembly to
support his candidacy. Since then the Speaker
has remained fervently in romance with Tinubu
and company.
On the possibility of Tambuwal jumping into the
APC Presidential race, my answer is a big NO.
That was the thinking once upon a time and I
was probably the first columnist to write about it.
Two major factors affected and aborted that
dream.
Tinubu had hoped to groom Tambuwal for the
Presidential race. He was seen as a sellable
candidate who by virtue of his position and
exalted office would readily have his foot-soldiers
in most of the Federal constituencies. A lot of
work had been done even to persuade the
People’s General, Muhammadu Buhari, to come
out and anoint Tambuwal publicly. General
Babangida had already endorsed him openly.
General Obasanjo, the most vocal of the Generals,
had no objection to him as everyone knew him to
be humble and likeable.
Let me quickly explain before I continue this
enthralling saga. Nigeria is a Mafia nation
controlled by four different groups. The political
Capos are about ten members including Generals
Yakubu Jack Dan-Yumma Gowon (the Head of
State who fought to keep Nigeria as one country
and most senior Army General around), Olusegun
Matthew Okikiolakan Aremu Obasanjo (only
person to have tasted power as military Head of
State and civilian President and has the widest
international influence), Muhammadu Buhari
(most feared of the lot but closest to the poor
people of Nigeria), Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida
(only military Head of State and military
President), Abdulsalami Abubakar (only man who
kept his word of serving for only one year without
the temptation of elongation), Theophilus Yakubu
Danjuma (who has never governed Nigeria but is
the richest, very cerebral and most taciturn
power-house in the country), Goodluck Ebele
Azikiwe Jonathan (who by virtue of his present
position is a member of that Mafia even if he
looks more like a stranger in the fraternity) and
Senator David Alechenu Bonaventure Mark (retired
Army General and current Senate President who
has worked his way up the Mafioso ladder in
Nigeria)… There are of course a couple of others
who have been security chiefs at one time or the
other.
A few Royal icons are sometimes contacted or
consulted by the original Mafia. They include The
Sultan of Sokoto, The Ooni of Ife, The Obi of
Onitsha, The Alaafin of Oyo, The Emir of Kano,
The Emir of Zazzau, The Shehu of Borno, The
Lamido of Adamawa, and a few others.
There also exists a super caucus of stupendously
wealthy business men who hold the economy of
Nigeria together and form the third axis of power
in the country. They include Dr Michael Adeniyi
Agbolade Isola Adenuga (the enigmatic billionaire
who controls substantial interests in oil & gas,
telecoms, banking and real estate whose true
worth has never been revealed); Alhaji Aliko
Dangote (with interests in cement, sugar, rice,
salt, refineries, and one of the world’s richest
men); Dr Tony Elumelu (Group Chairman UBA,
Heirs Holdings and Transcorp Corporation of
Nigeria); Mr Jim Ovia (with vast interests in
banking, telecoms and hospitality); Mr Femi
Otedola (with a firm grip on the diesel market and
petroleum products) plus two controllers of
wealth, both ladies, Diezani Alison-Madueke
(Minister of Petroleum Resources) and Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala (Minister of Finance). These men
and women have unfettered access to power. Add
to the mix some very influential religious leaders
who space constraint and time would not allow
me to name and you have a cauldron of intrigues
and machinations everywhere. All the above-
mentioned interests have to be delicately
managed with that of the political operatives in
the process of seeking Presidential power in
Nigeria even if there are occasional or accidental
miracles like that of President Jonathan.
Tambuwal had a robust network with most of
these interest groups.
But the technical complexities of declaring his
interest while retaining the Speakership became
too knotty to untie. In the process, the steam of
Tambuwal’s ambition slowly and steadily
evaporated. Then something unexpected overtook
the game. Tinubu came into the picture as a
possible Vice Presidential candidate. It is still
unclear who sold the idea to Tinubu or whether
he had nursed the ambition secretly all along.
The decision of Tinubu and his team was that
such ambition could only be realised in
conjunction with Buhari or Atiku since other
Presidential aspirants would be too little in status
to him. The small group then decided to amplify
Buhari’s candidacy. This was how Buhari was
cleverly persuaded into returning to the race at a
time he had almost said goodbye to perpetual
electioneering.
The next hurdle was how to sell what would
naturally become a major combustible element in
this season of religious conflagration in Nigeria,
the Muslim/Muslim ticket, which I wrote agaist
very early as a true friend of Tinubu. In fact, a
very influential Yoruba man had called and
lambasted me for saying the Muslim/Muslim
ticket would not work this time. The man was
livid as I tried to let him see reason with me. I
was now convinced that many people were
misleading Tinubu who ordinarily is a master
tactician and strategist. The group again decided
that for the Tinubu project to work, they must get
a Christian candidate for Lagos as palliative to
shut up the Christian groups. This was the main
reason the Akinwumi Ambode Governorship
project became a spiritual obligation.
The group also became very chummy with their
erstwhile foe, General Obasanjo, hoping he would
not openly attack the project.
Their worst fear was confirmed when Obasanjo
gave a blistering attack against a Muslim/Muslim
ticket last week thus forcing even the APC
Chairman to promptly react that no such idea
was ever contemplated. The plan B is now how
to get a Christian within the group to step
forward as replacement. Except Tinubu changes
his mind today or tomorrow, Buhari or whoever
gets the APC Presidential ticket would have to
suffer some serious migraine because the group
wants the reward of working for APC right here
on earth and not in heaven.
They are not willing to let go of that VP slot
which they are convinced is rightly theirs. The
candidate would have to do one of two things,
succumb to pressure from Tinubu’s camp or call
their bluff. Neither is going to be easy.
The first is the belief that no one can ignore
Tinubu’s electoral value in the South West. Some
party members are so scared of stepping on
Tinubu’s toes even if they believe his influence
has waned drastically in recent months. Tinubu’s
camp unfortunately is not able to produce a
Christian politician with national appeal at this
time. The best candidate for the job would have
been the wonder-man of Lagos State, Governor
Babatunde Raji Fashola, but there are problems
with him on two fronts. The first is that he is a
Muslim like Tinubu. And even if his incredible
popularity provides him an automatic waiver, he
is locked in a battle of wits with his godfather on
the issue of who becomes the next Governor of
Lagos.
Tinubu is insisting on Mr Ambode while Fashola
prefers his former Attorney-General, Mr Supo
Shasore.
About ten aspirants have already picked up
nomination forms. Ambode has launched his
campaign and so has Mr Adeyemi Ikuforiji, the
three-Term Speaker of the Lagos State House of
Assembly and probably the most formidable
politician in the race. No one knows how things
would pan out.
With Fashola out of the Vice Presidential
equation, Tinubu is relying on his friends, the
three Musketeers: Yemi Osibajo (a Senior
Advocate of Nigeria, Pastor of the Redeemed
Christian Church of God and former Attorney-
General in Lagos); Yemi Cardoso aka Headmaster
( an accountant, banker with a Master’s degree in
Public Administration and Management from
Havard, served under Governor Tinubu as
Commissioner of Economic Planning and Budget);
and Olawale Edun (with an exceptionally brilliant
background in Economics and great career in
Merchant banking, corporate finance and
stockbroking; he was a Commissioner of Finance
under Governor Tinubu).
There is a fourth personality under consideration,
Professor Robert Ajayi Borrofice, a distinguished
Senator of the Federal Republic from Ondo State
who was Director General, National Space
Research and Development Agency, with a PhD in
Genetics. They are all distinguished and
honourable men but many doubt their electoral
value in a complicated environment like Nigeria.
Many APC members believe the South West
should not produce the Vice President so soon
after Obasanjo left power. Their greatest
consideration is that the region that lays the
golden eggs, the South-South cannot be ignored
if peace must reign and President Jonathan is to
be pushed aside. The conclusion is that both
Governors Adams Oshiomhole and Rotimi
Amaechi have the national appeal as well as
Executive experience that Buhari would require
after so many years out of power.
Amaechi in his case has the additional advantage
of legislative exposure as two-Term Speaker of
Rivers State while Oshiomhole comes with
intimidating Labour credentials.
I will still place my bet on Buhari emerging as the
APC Presidential candidate. He’s a safer risk for
his Party and one man the other aspirants can
unite around. He would now have to be bold
enough to take the difficult risk of who becomes
his running mate.
I wish him the best of wisdom.
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